Ukraine Peace Talks at 90%: Why the Last 10% — Territory and Nuclear Plant Control — May Be Impossible
·7 min read
Trump and Zelenskyy have reportedly agreed on 90-95% of a peace framework, but the remaining disputes over Zaporizhzhia, Donbas territory, and security guarantees are the hardest ones. Meanwhile, the Iran war is draining Western attention and Ukraine's fuel supply.
US-brokered peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have reached a peculiar impasse: both sides are near-consensus on the procedural mechanics of a ceasefire — monitoring mechanisms, prisoner exchanges, the sequencing of troop withdrawals — while remaining fundamentally deadlocked on the questions that actually determine the outcome of the war. According to multiple officials familiar with the talks, Trump and Zelenskyy have agreed on approximately 90-95% of a proposed framework. The remaining 5-10% includes control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the territorial demarcation line in Donbas, and the nature of Ukraine's long-term security guarantees.
Those three issues are not peripheral disagreements. They are the war.
The Zaporizhzhia plant — Europe's largest nuclear power station, seized by Russian forces in the opening weeks of the 2022 full-scale invasion — has been under Russian military administration for four years. Kyiv insists control must revert to Ukraine as a non-negotiable condition of any agreement. Moscow's position is that Zaporizhzhia is Russian territory (it was formally annexed as part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast in September 2022) and that the plant remains under Russian operational control regardless of any ceasefire. The International Atomic Energy Agency, which has been monitoring the plant throughout the war, has repeatedly flagged the arrangement as inconsistent with basic nuclear safety protocols.
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“Kyiv insists control must revert to Ukraine as a non-negotiable condition of any agreement.”
The territorial dispute is equally intractable at the margins. Russia is demanding Ukraine formally cede all four oblasts it has annexed — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson — as a precondition for a ceasefire. Ukraine, supported by EU and most NATO positions, insists that a ceasefire must come first, with territorial negotiations following. The practical difference is decisive: if Ukraine cedes territory before fighting stops, it loses leverage in the subsequent political process; if fighting stops first, Russia has less incentive to accept anything less than its current territorial control.
Key Takeaways
→Ukraine peace talks: Trump and Zelenskyy have reportedly agreed on 90-95% of a framework, but the remaining disputes — Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant control, Donbas territorial lines, and security guarantees — are the core issues the war is actually about.
→Zelenskyy Trump: Trump and Zelenskyy have reportedly agreed on 90-95% of a framework, but the remaining disputes — Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant control, Donbas territorial lines, and security guarantees — are the core issues the war is actually about.
→Donbas territory: Trump and Zelenskyy have reportedly agreed on 90-95% of a framework, but the remaining disputes — Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant control, Donbas territorial lines, and security guarantees — are the core issues the war is actually about.
→Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant: Trump and Zelenskyy have reportedly agreed on 90-95% of a framework, but the remaining disputes — Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant control, Donbas territorial lines, and security guarantees — are the core issues the war is actually about.
Russia gained approximately four square miles of Ukrainian territory in the week of March 17-24, according to Institute for the Study of War data — a slow but consistent grind that reinforces Moscow's calculation that time favors maximalist demands. On the night of March 26-27, Russia launched 86 drones and 1 ballistic missile at Ukrainian territory in strikes targeting civilian infrastructure across multiple regions.
The complication that few observers flagged clearly enough is the Iran factor. The US-Israel military campaign against Iran that began February 28 has effectively displaced Ukraine from the top of Washington's foreign policy agenda. Multiple senior European officials told Euronews that US attention to the Ukraine peace process has dropped dramatically since the Hormuz closure. The administration's diplomatic bandwidth is consumed by the Iran track, and the Ukraine framework has been placed in what one official called "a holding pattern." Trump confirmed this week that the US will not fund new direct military assistance to Ukraine, placing the burden entirely on European allies who have stepped up but lack American targeting and intelligence capabilities.
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The fuel situation adds material urgency. Ukraine's military operations depend heavily on diesel and jet fuel imports. The Iran war's effect on global oil prices — Brent above $110/barrel — is straining Kyiv's ability to maintain operational tempo. Ukrainian defense officials, speaking without attribution, told Reuters that fuel supply chains are under the most pressure since the winter of 2022-23.
The financial picture has an important bright spot. The EU approved a €90 billion loan package for Ukraine covering 2026-27, drawing on proceeds from frozen Russian sovereign assets. EU military aid to Ukraine rose 67% in 2025 compared to 2024, per figures from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Europe is now Ukraine's primary military backer, and Germany alone has committed €8 billion in weapons and equipment for 2026. The shift represents a meaningful structural change in the war's support architecture — one that makes Ukraine's military sustainability less dependent on US political cycles.
What this means for you: The Ukraine peace process is not close to resolution despite the "90%" framing. The disputed items are structurally irresolvable under current conditions because Russia's incentive to agree to Ukraine-favorable terms is negative — it is still advancing, it is flush with oil revenue from the Hormuz disruption, and its attention and resources are not being diverted the way Ukraine's are. The realistic scenario over the next 30-60 days is continued grinding conflict with peace talks in a holding pattern. The EU financial commitment to Ukraine is substantial enough to prevent a military collapse; it is not sufficient to force a Russian withdrawal.
Trump and Zelenskyy have reportedly agreed on 90-95% of a framework, but the remaining disputes — Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant control, Donbas territorial lines, and security guarantees — are the core issues the war is actually about. Analysts consider a final agreement unlikely in the near term given Russia's maximalist territorial demands.
Why is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant important to Ukraine peace talks?
Zaporizhzhia is Europe's largest nuclear power station. Russia seized and annexed it in 2022. Ukraine insists on its return as a non-negotiable condition; Russia treats it as annexed territory it will not relinquish. The IAEA has repeatedly flagged safety concerns with current Russian military administration.
Is the EU replacing the US as Ukraine's main military backer?
Effectively, yes. The EU approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine for 2026-27. EU military aid rose 67% in 2025. Germany alone committed €8 billion for 2026. Trump confirmed the US will not fund new direct military assistance, placing the entire burden on European allies.
How is the Iran war affecting Ukraine?
The Iran conflict has diverted US diplomatic attention from the Ukraine peace process, strained Ukraine's military fuel supply as global oil prices exceed $110/barrel, and boosted Russian war revenues through higher oil prices — Russia's 2026 budget was built on a $59/barrel Urals blend assumption that has now been far exceeded.
What security guarantees does Ukraine want in a peace deal?
Ukraine is seeking binding NATO-style mutual defense commitments or equivalent guarantees from the US, UK, France, and Germany as a condition for any territorial compromise. Russia opposes any NATO membership pathway for Ukraine. The nature and bindingness of security guarantees is one of the core unresolved disputes in current negotiations.
