The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Through that gap flows roughly 20 percent of the world's petroleum liquids — about 21 million barrels per day — along with a significant share of global liquefied natural gas shipments. Since United States and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities on February 28, Iran has used the strait as leverage, targeting vessels attempting transit and effectively bringing commercial shipping through the waterway to near zero. The economic consequences are only now becoming visible in their full scale.
The price signal was stark: Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged from $72 per barrel immediately before the war to $118 last week, a 64 percent spike in less than four weeks. Monday's partial relief rally — triggered by Trump's five-day pause on threatened strikes against Iranian power plants — pulled oil back to around $100. That is still $28 above the pre-war price, and analysts at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both warned Monday that $100 is not a floor if the strait remains functionally closed.
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