The U.S.-Israel war on Iran, now in its 25th day, is generating a beneficiary that fired no missiles and signed no alliance: Russia. As Western attention fixates on Tehran and Tel Aviv, the Kremlin is quietly collecting a combination of financial windfalls, diplomatic cover, and strategic distraction that could reshape the balance of the war in Ukraine — and the trajectory of global energy markets for years to come.
Japan's Asahi Shimbun published an analysis on March 24, 2026, identifying Russia as "the primary geopolitical beneficiary" of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, citing three mutually reinforcing advantages. First and most immediately: oil revenues. Russia is the world's second-largest oil exporter. With Brent crude above $104 per barrel — compared to a pre-conflict level of roughly $72 — Russia is earning an estimated $300 million to $400 million per day in additional hydrocarbon revenues relative to its pre-war baseline, according to estimates by the Kyiv School of Economics. That sum is approaching the daily cost of Russia's military operations in Ukraine, partially offsetting the fiscal pressure imposed by Western sanctions.
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