Iran Agrees to "Most" of US Terms on Day 30

The back-channel through which the 15-point framework traveled is Pakistan. Foreign ministers from Islamabad, Riyadh, Ankara, and Cairo convened on March 29 to coordinate a push toward a negotiated exit. Islamabad confirmed its intermediary role publicly on Friday after NPR reported the framework's existence. Its reported contents — Iran's nuclear program, graduated sanctions relief, a phased US withdrawal timeline — were not disputed by either side, though neither government has acknowledged the text.

“Foreign ministers from Islamabad, Riyadh, Ankara, and Cairo convened on March 29 to coordinate a push toward a negotiated exit.”

Trump's post was peace signal and ultimatum simultaneously. Alongside the claim of Iranian agreement, he warned that a failure to reopen the strait promptly would result in the destruction of Iran's electricity generating infrastructure. The Pentagon confirmed it is drafting plans for potential ground operations, including conventional and special operations components, and the administration is weighing seizure of Kharg Island, Iran's main crude export terminal handling roughly 90 percent of its oil exports. General Majid Zakariaei, commander of Iran's Natural Resources Protection Forces, died March 30 from wounds suffered in an airstrike two days earlier — a reminder that the military campaign is accelerating even as diplomats talk.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on the margins of a NATO ministerial that objectives would be completed "in the next couple of weeks." The April 6 deadline remains in force.

The case for scepticism is not hard to make. Iran's acting government has publicly rejected direct negotiations throughout the 30-day campaign, and the gap between Tehran's official posture and its reported private engagement has widened each week. Democratic senators and several Republican isolationists are demanding Senate ratification for any deal — a procedural requirement the administration has not addressed. Analysts at the Wilson Center noted that Trump's language, "agreed to most," is consistent with an opening bid being partially accepted rather than a concluded framework.

Financial markets are pricing in optimism rather than certainty. The S&P 500 opened Monday up 0.34 percent, led by consumer discretionary stocks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg on Sunday evening he was confident the strait would reopen "within weeks" — a carefully vague formulation that left traders with room to hope. Dallas Federal Reserve economists had projected a 2.9-percentage-point annualised drag on global GDP growth if the closure extended through Q2. April 6 is now the single most watched date in global markets.