Trump's 15-Point Iran Peace Plan: What's in It, Who's Mediating, and What the Strait of Hormuz Concession Means

The 15-point plan has not been published in full, but five core demands have been confirmed by sources briefed on the document who spoke to the Wall Street Journal and NBC News. The single non-negotiable item, according to those sources, is that Iran must surrender its entire stockpile of enriched uranium — estimated at approximately 8,294 kilograms, enough for roughly ten nuclear weapons if further enriched. The US is offering a third-country escrow arrangement, likely via Qatar, to hold the material as a goodwill demonstration that it will not be used for offensive purposes. In exchange, Washington is reportedly offering a phased sanctions relief package, a formal security guarantee barring US-initiated regime change, and economic reconstruction assistance worth up to $50 billion over ten years.

“Iran's official response has been measured but not dismissive.”

The remaining points, according to a summary provided by Al Jazeera, include the release of all US citizens detained in Iran (currently five), recognition of Israel's right to exist within agreed 1967 borders, withdrawal of IRGC-affiliated militias from Iraq and Syria, a halt to Iranian ballistic missile development beyond 2,000-kilometer range, and Iran joining a regional framework modeled loosely on the Abraham Accords. These are not new demands — they echo the framework Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined in a February speech at the Council on Foreign Relations — but delivering them via a friendly Muslim-majority nation rather than through a public ultimatum changes the diplomatic temperature considerably.

Iran's official response has been measured but not dismissive. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei said Tuesday that Iran "takes note of the proposals" but reiterated that any negotiations must be "based on respect for Iranian sovereignty and the complete lifting of all sanctions." The distinction matters: Iran is not publicly rejecting talks, but it is refusing to pre-commit to the uranium surrender demand before negotiations begin. That gap is where the deal could collapse.

Meanwhile, the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent immediate signals through global commodity markets. Brent crude fell from a peak of $103.40 per barrel on Monday to $97.80 by Tuesday morning, its sharpest single-session decline since the conflict began 25 days ago. The International Energy Agency, which earlier called the disruption "worse than both 1970s oil shocks combined," cautioned that the partial reopening covered civilian tankers only — military-flagged and dual-use vessels were still being turned away. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply transits the strait; even a partial resumption is meaningful.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has been the loudest internal skeptic of diplomatic engagement, is reportedly "quite disappointed" by the administration's decision to pause planned strikes on Iranian power grid infrastructure. Two US carrier strike groups remain positioned in the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea, and Pentagon sources confirmed to CNN that the strike packages are maintained on 24-hour readiness. The five-day window Trump approved for the diplomatic track expires on Saturday, March 28 — giving Pakistan, and Iran, less than 96 hours to show meaningful movement.

China added its voice to the pressure on Tehran on Tuesday. A senior official at the Chinese Foreign Ministry, speaking on background, told Iranian counterparts that "talking is always better than fighting" — phrasing that diplomatic observers read as a directive rather than a suggestion, given Beijing's substantial economic leverage over Tehran. China has been Iran's largest oil customer throughout the conflict, absorbing roughly 1.4 million barrels per day that cannot reach Western markets under sanctions. That dependency gives Beijing real influence over Pezeshkian's calculus.

The UN Human Rights Council convened an urgent session Tuesday focused on Iranian strikes against Gulf states, including a March 21 attack on civilian infrastructure in Bahrain that killed seven people. The session is not directly relevant to the peace talks, but it increases international pressure on Tehran to demonstrate good faith.

For ordinary consumers, the Strait of Hormuz reopening to civilian tankers is the most immediately relevant development. Gasoline prices in the United States peaked at a national average of $4.87 per gallon last week, according to AAA. If diplomatic progress holds and Brent crude sustains below $100, analysts at Goldman Sachs project a $0.40-to-$0.60 per gallon decline at the pump within three to four weeks. Mortgage rates and consumer credit costs are less directly exposed to oil prices, but the Federal Reserve has explicitly tied its rate-hold decision at 3.5–3.75% to the energy shock — a genuine ceasefire would reopen the door to the two rate cuts markets were pricing before the conflict began.

For investors, the risk calculus shifted meaningfully on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Energy sector, which had surged 22 percent since Day 1 of the conflict, fell 3.1 percent in early trading. Defense sector names held gains. Airlines and shipping stocks rallied on the strait news, with Delta and United each rising more than 4 percent in pre-market trading.

The next 72 hours will be decisive. Pakistan has offered Islamabad as a neutral venue for direct US-Iran talks — a significant step beyond mere message delivery. Whether Iran agrees to send a delegation, and whether that delegation is empowered to discuss the uranium question, will determine whether this week ends with a ceasefire framework or a renewed escalation. Every party at the table, including China, has a material stake in the outcome.