Iran's New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei Vows to Hold Strait of Hormuz as Trump's Deadline Passes

Mojtaba Khamenei's ascension to the Supreme Leadership position was not formally announced through the Assembly of Experts — the clerical body constitutionally responsible for selecting Iran's leader — but rather through a rapid consolidation of authority in the Revolutionary Guard Council in the days after his father's death. Western intelligence officials and Iran analysts at the Institute for the Study of War and the Carnegie Endowment have described the transition as "opaque and contested," noting that several senior clerics within the Assembly of Experts have not publicly endorsed the new leader.

“That internal fracture matters for the diplomatic picture.”

That internal fracture matters for the diplomatic picture. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi — who had been involved in quiet nuclear talks with European intermediaries before the war began — has notably distanced himself from the hardline statements, telling reporters in an off-camera session that the Strait is "not closed to all shipping, only to vessels of hostile nations." His statement, which contradicts the Revolutionary Guard's operational posture, suggests divisions within the Iranian government about whether to continue the blockade indefinitely or use it as a negotiating lever.

The practical consequences of the Strait's closure are compounding by the week. Traffic through the chokepoint has dropped approximately 95% from pre-war levels. Iran has established a "vetting system" that allows ships from China, India, and select neutral nations to transit under escort, while targeting tankers flagged by U.S., Israeli, British, and other coalition partners. The United Kingdom and Belgium formally joined a U.S.-led naval coalition defending shipping in the region in mid-March; their warships have been engaged in defensive intercepts of Iranian drone and fast-boat attacks but have not launched offensive strikes against Iranian territory.

Oman's Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who has served as the primary back-channel intermediary between Washington and Tehran, gave an interview to Al Jazeera on March 24 noting that nuclear negotiations had been "making real progress" before the February 28 strikes and that a return to talks was still "conceptually possible" despite the current hostilities. His comments represent the most optimistic public signal from any regional actor in weeks.

The UN Security Council remains paralyzed. Russia and China have blocked every Western-sponsored resolution authorizing enforcement action, while simultaneously calling for a ceasefire — a position that effectively protects Iranian leverage without risking direct confrontation with the U.S. The snapback sanctions mechanism triggered by European nations in September 2025 has placed an arms embargo, missile technology ban, and asset freezes back on Iran under the original JCPOA framework, but those measures have done nothing to alter Iranian military behavior in the current conflict.

For the global economy, every week the Strait remains closed adds approximately $8-12 billion in additional shipping and energy costs to the world economy, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Tanker rates on the Persian Gulf-to-Asia route have risen 340% since February. The International Energy Agency issued a formal warning on March 22 that the situation is "more severe than the worst-case scenarios modeled in our 2025 energy security report."

**What this means for you**

The transition of Supreme Leadership to Mojtaba Khamenei introduces a variable that no diplomatic model had fully accounted for. His father, despite his hawkish public posture, had a known decision-making pattern and established lines of communication. Mojtaba is unknown — his positions on nuclear negotiations, economic pragmatism, and the Revolutionary Guard's role in governance have not been tested under real pressure. That uncertainty is priced into every commodity and currency market connected to Middle Eastern supply chains.

The nearest-term diplomatic test comes from Oman's back-channel: if Mojtaba Khamenei is willing to allow even a partial humanitarian corridor through the Strait in exchange for suspending some coalition naval operations, that would be the first concrete de-escalation signal since hostilities began. The absence of any such signal by early April would represent a significant hardening of Iran's position and would likely push Brent crude back toward $125.