IEA Chief Says Iran War Energy Shock Is Worse Than the 1970s. Here's the Data.

The International Energy Agency's executive director does not typically reach for historical superlatives. Fatih Birol has spent two decades measuring energy disruptions with clinical precision. So when he said Monday that the current Middle East crisis is "very severe" and worse than both oil shocks of the 1970s combined — including the 1973 OPEC embargo and the 1979 Iranian revolution — it registered as something beyond the usual IEA cautionary language. He did not say it was trending toward those crises. He said it was already worse.

The data supports the comparison. The 1973 embargo cut global oil supply by roughly 7 percent for a period of about six months. The 1979 Iranian revolution removed approximately 2.5 million barrels per day from global markets for an extended period, triggering stagflation across Western economies. The current Strait of Hormuz near-closure has reduced effective global supply by an estimated 12 to 14 million barrels per day — roughly 12 percent of consumption — in just under four weeks. The speed of the disruption is unprecedented.