Trump at 36%: How the Iran War, Inflation, and a Court Order Over Voice of America Are Reshaping His Second Term

Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 36 percent, the lowest of his second term, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted March 22–24. The slide — down from 43 percent in January — is driven primarily by two factors: rising living costs tied to the energy shock from the US-Israel war on Iran, and growing public unease about the conflict itself. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they disapprove of how Trump has handled the Iran situation; among independent voters, that figure rises to 64 percent.

The approval number landed on the same morning that a federal judge ordered the Trump administration to immediately reinstate more than 1,000 Voice of America employees who had been placed on administrative leave as part of the White House's broader effort to restructure the US Agency for Global Media. District Judge Royce Lamberth, a Reagan appointee sitting in the District of Columbia, ruled that the mass leave placement amounted to a constructive termination that violated both the employees' civil service protections and the congressional appropriations statute that funds Voice of America. "Congress created and funded this agency," Lamberth wrote. "The Executive cannot hollow it out through administrative sleight of hand." The Trump administration is expected to appeal, but Lamberth's ruling requires reinstatement pending that appeal.

The VOA ruling is the latest in a series of judicial setbacks for the administration's effort to reshape the federal bureaucracy. Courts have now partially or fully blocked moves to restructure the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, and two dozen smaller federal agencies. Legal scholars at Georgetown University Law Center have characterized the pattern as "unprecedented judicial friction in the first year of a second-term presidency," noting that first-term Trump faced fewer early injunctions because courts were still calibrating the scope of presidential administrative authority.

On the energy front, Trump on Monday eased sanctions on Russia and Venezuela to unlock alternative oil supply as global markets strain under the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Russia sanction relief — technically a 90-day waiver on a subset of energy-sector penalties — allows European buyers to continue purchasing Russian pipeline gas without triggering secondary US sanctions. The decision was welcomed by Germany and Hungary but drew immediate criticism from the Baltic states and Poland, which have been the loudest advocates for tighter Russia pressure within NATO. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy called the waiver "a gift to the Kremlin at the worst possible moment." The Venezuela measure similarly allows US oil companies to purchase Venezuelan crude on the spot market, potentially adding 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day to global supply within 60 to 90 days.

CPAC 2026, which opened Tuesday in Grapevine, Texas, is running without Trump, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis — an unusual absence of top-tier Republican talent that CPAC chairman Matt Schlapp attributed to "the demands of managing an active conflict." Political analysts noted that the absence also reflects a deliberate White House decision to avoid a spectacle at a moment when the Iran ceasefire negotiations are at a delicate stage. The conference agenda has been dominated by second-tier figures promoting aggressive positions on Iran, immigration, and federal spending cuts, with several speakers calling for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities rather than the diplomatic track the White House is currently pursuing.

The partial government shutdown, now in its 23rd day, continues to cause visible operational strain. TSA staffing shortages have created lines of up to three hours at major airports including O'Hare, LAX, and Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson — particularly painful during spring break week, when roughly 7 million Americans are traveling. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told reporters Tuesday that the administration was considering a temporary deployment of National Guard personnel to assist with airport screening, but no formal order has been signed. TSA union officials disputed the framing, telling CNN that the problem was not workload but morale: roughly 1,200 TSA employees have called in sick in the past week, a sick-out rate roughly three times the normal level, in protest of the administration's proposed pay restructuring.

Economically, the administration's position is complicated by the fact that the oil price shock is simultaneously a national security problem and a domestic political one. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5–3.75 percent at its March 19 meeting, citing the energy-driven inflation spike. Markets are now pricing in a 34 percent probability of a rate hike at the May meeting — a reversal from January, when two to three cuts were consensus expectations. For households, the average American credit card interest rate sits at 22.4 percent, near a historic high, and mortgage rates have risen to 7.1 percent on a 30-year fixed loan, according to Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey. Both figures are sensitive to Fed expectations.

The administration's approval trajectory matters politically because 2028 presidential primary positioning has already begun. The CPAC absence of Vance and Rubio — both considered potential 2028 candidates — and the emergence of second-tier voices at the conference suggests that the Republican field is waiting to see how the Iran situation resolves before committing to proximity or distance from Trump's legacy. A successful ceasefire deal before the end of March could restore some approval points; a prolonged war almost certainly accelerates the erosion.

**What this means for you**

The government shutdown's effect on TSA operations is the most immediately tangible consequence for the roughly 7 million Americans traveling this spring break week. Travelers should add at least 90 minutes to their airport arrival window at major hubs. For investors, the Russia and Venezuela sanction waivers are the most significant policy shift: they signal that the administration is willing to use sanctions flexibility as an oil market tool, which introduces uncertainty into the calculus of energy investors who had priced in sustained Russia pressure. For workers at federal agencies, the VOA ruling reinforces the legal precedent that mass administrative leave without congressional authorization can be challenged successfully in court.

The 36 percent approval rating, while historically low for this stage of a presidency, is not yet in the territory where it meaningfully constrains executive action — Trump governed effectively through approval numbers in the mid-thirties during his first term. But the combination of a war, a shutdown, elevated inflation, and a series of judicial setbacks creates a governance environment where the margin for additional policy failures is narrow.