Where are oil and gasoline prices as of March 26, 2026?

Brent crude rose back to $101.30 per barrel on March 26 after a brief dip to $97.80. The national average for regular gasoline hit a peak of $4.87 per gallon last week, eased to $4.71 on Tuesday, and is projected to rise again toward $4.80 following Wednesday's crude surge. California is approaching $9 per gallon at some stations.

How much has the S&P 500 fallen since the Iran war began?

The S&P 500 is down 6.3% since February 28, when the US-Israel war on Iran began. The decline masks enormous sector dispersion: Energy stocks are up 22%, while airlines and industrials are down 12-18%. A balanced 60/40 portfolio has lost approximately 4% — roughly six months of average annual returns.

Why won't the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?

The Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% at its March 12 meeting, explicitly citing energy-price-driven inflation. Before the Iran conflict, markets priced a 78% probability of two rate cuts in 2026; that has collapsed to 31% according to CME Group's FedWatch. Governor Waller said the Fed needs to see sustained evidence that energy pressure is abating.

How has the oil price spike affected mortgage rates?

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.89% as of March 20, up from 6.41% on February 28. That 48-basis-point increase adds roughly $135/month to a $400,000 mortgage payment. Redfin reports pending home sales in March are tracking 7% below 2025 levels.

What happens to prices if a ceasefire is reached?

Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude would fall to $78-$82 within two weeks of a credible ceasefire announcement, with US gasoline prices declining $0.50-$0.70 per gallon within a month. The S&P 500 could recover 3-4% on a deal announcement. Rate cut probabilities would reprice sharply upward, and the mortgage market would ease.

Oil Hits $101, S&P 500 Falls 6% Since Februar…

Brent crude is back at $101 and the S&P 500 is down 6.3% since the Iran war began. Gas is $4.87 and mortgages are up 48 basis points. Here's the household math.

Oil spiked back above $101 per barrel Wednesday after a brief dip Tuesday, erasing two days of gains and reminding anyone who hoped the Iran conflict was winding down that the market's nerves are still raw. Brent crude sat at $101.30 in London trading by 8 a.m. EST, a 4.1 percent single-session increase driven by the news that Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy commander had been killed in a US-Israeli airstrike. The broader financial picture, 27 days into the US-Israel war on Iran, has reached a point where it is directly visible in American household budgets — not just in gasoline prices, but in mortgage rates, grocery bills, retirement account balances, and the terms on new car loans.

The single most visible number is at the pump. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline hit $4.87 last week, according to AAA, before easing slightly to $4.71 on Tuesday following news of a partial Hormuz reopening to civilian tankers. Wednesday's crude surge will reverse that trend. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan projected Wednesday that the national average will climb back toward $4.80 within a week. California, where state taxes and regulatory costs already elevate prices above the national average, reached $8.96 per gallon at some stations — approaching the $9 threshold that would set an all-time state record.

oil prices 2026 · gasoline prices March 2026 · S&P 500 Iran war

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Oil Hits $101, S&P 500 Falls 6% Since February: What the Iran War Is Doing to Your Finances

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Oil Hits $101, S&P 500 Falls 6% Since February: What the Iran War Is Doing to Your Finances

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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