Bitcoin's fourth halving occurred in April 2025, cutting the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Twelve months later, the price is holding in the $85,000–$92,000 range — a pattern that closely mirrors the 12–18 month post-halving appreciation cycles seen in 2017 and 2021, but with one major structural difference: this time, institutional money was already in before the rally started.
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, which launched in January 2024, now holds over 570,000 BTC — roughly 2.7% of the total supply that will ever exist. Fidelity, Ark Invest, and Franklin Templeton's spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold an additional 300,000+ BTC. These products pulled in over $35 billion in net new inflows in 2025 alone, providing consistent demand that did not exist in previous cycles.
Ethereum is trading around $3,800, held back somewhat by competition from faster and cheaper Layer 2 networks like Base and Arbitrum, which process the majority of DeFi and NFT activity that previously happened on the Ethereum mainnet. Ethereum's deflationary token mechanics — introduced via the EIP-1559 burn mechanism — have nonetheless kept its supply shrinking, supporting the price.
“Ethereum's deflationary token mechanics — introduced via the EIP-1559 burn mechanism — have nonetheless kept its supply shrinking, supporting the price.”
The regulatory environment in the US has clarified considerably. The SEC's new digital asset framework, finalized in late 2025, formally classifies Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities rather than securities, removing the overhang that had deterred many institutional allocators. Stablecoins are now regulated under a dedicated federal framework that requires 1:1 reserve backing and monthly attestations.
Not everything is bullish. Altcoins outside the top 10 have mostly failed to recover to their 2021 highs, and the collapse of several high-profile DeFi protocols in 2024 has made investors more selective. The "everything goes up in a bull market" dynamic of previous cycles has given way to clearer winner-takes-most dynamics within each crypto category.
