The last commercial tanker carrying jet fuel through the Strait of Hormuz loaded on 28 February 2026 — the same day U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began. By 17 April, that supply chain is severed, and the aviation industry is confronting a cost crisis with no short-term solution.
Jet fuel prices in the United States have surged 95% since the war started, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly report published 14 April — the single largest fuel-price shock the aviation industry has absorbed since September 2001. North Sea aviation kerosene, the benchmark for European carriers, is tracking near $3.80 per gallon, up from $1.94 on 27 February 2026. The gap between those numbers is the difference between a profitable summer season and a structurally loss-making one for carriers that did not hedge.
**By the numbers**
“Ryanair operates approximately 3,500 flights per day during peak summer months; a 10% cut would ground 350 daily departures and affect roughly 63,000 passengers.”
Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary said on 15 April 2026 that the carrier was modeling scenarios where 5 to 10% of its summer schedule is canceled if the Hormuz disruption continues through May. Ryanair operates approximately 3,500 flights per day during peak summer months; a 10% cut would ground 350 daily departures and affect roughly 63,000 passengers. Delta Air Lines separately disclosed in an 14 April SEC filing that fuel expenses for Q2 2026 were tracking $2.1 billion above its initial quarterly budget — a figure forcing a review of unprofitable routes across the Atlantic and Pacific. American Airlines said on 14 April it had hedged 45% of its Q2 fuel needs at pre-war prices, providing partial but insufficient protection; the remaining 55% is exposed to spot prices currently near $3.10 per gallon at major U.S. hubs.
