Sweet 16 Is Set — And Duke vs. the Field Has Never Felt So One-Sided

The Sweet 16 bracket is set, and if you still have a perfect bracket, congratulations — you are one of exactly four people on the planet. Duke, the No. 1 overall seed, has not yet played a game that looked remotely like a challenge. The Blue Devils beat Appalachian State by 41 points in the first round and dispatched Xavier 88-67 in the second. Jon Scheyer's roster is averaging 94.2 points over the first two rounds, which is not a typo.

Thursday and Friday tip off the Sweet 16, and the storylines are legitimately good this year. Here is what to watch.

The Duke machine plays No. 5 seed Creighton on Thursday evening. Creighton got here by beating Dayton and a heavily favored Michigan squad that fell apart in the second half on Saturday. The Bluejays have the kind of three-point shooting — 42.1 percent on the season — that can theoretically keep any game close for three minutes at a time. Whether they can sustain it against Duke's perimeter defense, which is the best in the ACC statistically, is a different question. The realistic outcome is Duke winning by 12 to 15. The upset scenario requires Ryan Kalkbrenner to post something close to a 30-point, 14-rebound game. He is capable of it. He just hasn't done it yet.

“Creighton got here by beating Dayton and a heavily favored Michigan squad that fell apart in the second half on Saturday.”

The more interesting Thursday game is Houston against Nebraska. Kelvin Sampson's Cougars are a No. 1 seed in the Midwest region and have been grinding out wins in the way Houston always does — with defense that forces opponents into bad decisions until they crack. Nebraska, meanwhile, is in its first Sweet 16 in program history. The Cornhuskers won two tournament games in four days largely because their point guard Jamir McMillan has been playing the best basketball of his life, and because they held both opponents under 62 points.

Nebraska's Cinderella run matters for a reason that often gets undersold in tournament coverage: Fausto Zapata has rebuilt this program in three years from a Big Ten afterthought to a team that genuinely believes it can win on any night. The Cornhuskers went from 12 wins in 2023 to 16 in 2024 to 23 this season. The arc is real. Whether they can extend it against a Houston team that has held its last seven opponents under 65 points is the genuine unknown.

Auburn enters the Sweet 16 as a No. 2 seed facing No. 3 seed Tennessee on Friday, which is arguably the best matchup of the weekend on paper. Both programs are built on physicality, both have NBA-caliber frontcourt players, and both coaches — Bruce Pearl and Rick Barnes — have been coaching in high-pressure games for decades. Tennessee's Jonas Aidoo has been the most efficient big man in the tournament so far. Auburn's Johni Broome, if healthy after tweaking his ankle against Colorado on Saturday, is the only player in the field who might match him. Expect that game to go to the wire.

The bracket is also setting up in a way that could produce the Duke-Houston Elite Eight matchup that many analysts predicted in November. Both teams would have to win on Thursday and then Saturday, but neither matchup looks particularly dangerous for them on paper.

One thing that does not get discussed enough during Sweet 16 week is the travel factor. Teams that advance from one region play in the same regional site throughout, but the logistics of getting 16 teams to four cities in 72 hours after second-round games played across eight different venues is genuinely chaotic. Three programs — Nebraska, Creighton, and Auburn — are playing regional games within 90 miles of their campus. Home-adjacent noise advantages in college basketball are real. Don't ignore them.

The full Sweet 16 tips off Thursday at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS and TNT. Nebraska-Houston and Duke-Creighton are the late games on Thursday. Auburn-Tennessee leads the Friday slate.